Analytical Theory of Greedy Peeling for Bivariate Bicycle Codes and Two-Shot Streaming Decoding

We present an analytical theory of greedy peeling decoding for bivariate bicycle (BB) codes under circuit-level noise. The deferred greedy decoder achieves 330x latency reduction over belief propagation (BP) at p = 10^{-3} while maintaining identical logical error rate. Our main theoretical contribution is a closed-form collision resolution factor A_0 = |true collisions| / |birthday collisions|, derived from XOR syndrome analysis with no free parameters, that quantifies the fraction of detector-sharing fault pairs genuinely blocking iterative peeling. For the [[144,12,12]] Gross code, A_0 = 0.8685 (within 0.5% of the empirical value), with shared-2 pairs (4-cycles) always resolving under peeling. We show A_0 depends on the mean fault-graph degree d-bar rather than code size: A_0 = 0.87 for d-bar = 52 (Gross family) versus A_0 = 0.76 for d-bar = 17 ([[32,8,6]]). We establish a syndrome code stopping distance d_S = n/4.5 for the Gross family and demonstrate that [[32,8,6]] \(d_S = 4\) enables two-shot streaming decoding: T = 2 rounds achieve 89% peeling success with 1.29 +/- 0.03 LER ratio versus T = 12, at estimated latency 50 ns. The full formula P_peel = exp\(-A_0 * gamma_analytic * exp(-BTp\) * n * p^2) is validated across five BB codes, four noise levels, and four values of T with R^2 = 0.86. Cross-platform reproduction of the Kunlun [[18,4,4]] experiment matches their hardware LER within 0.73 percentage points.