Markov Chain Model of Entanglement Setup in Noisy Dynamic LEO Satellite Networks

Quantum entanglement routing in dynamic Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite networks is important for achieving scalable and high-fidelity quantum communication. However, the dynamic characteristics of satellite network topology, limited quantum resources, and strict coherence time constraints pose significant challenges to reliable entanglement routing. An entanglement distribution analysis model for this unique environment is critical and helpful for entanglement routing research. We address the fundamental challenge of establishing and maintaining quantum entanglement links between satellites operating in free space, where links are subject to both transmission losses and quantum memory decoherence. This paper presents a comprehensive Markov chain model with a state space defined by link storage age and physical distance for analyzing entanglement distribution in noisy dynamic LEO satellite quantum networks. We construct transition matrices that capture system dynamics under varying request arrival rates, and derive analytical expressions for key performance metrics, including request satisfaction rate, average waiting time, link utilization efficiency, and average consumed link fidelity. Our analysis reveals that the critical trade-offs of higher request rates lead to faster link consumption with higher fidelity but potentially lower satisfaction rates, while lower request rates allow longer storage times at the cost of lower fidelity of increased decoherence effect. Moreover, this paper proves it is reasonable to leave out polarization rotation when the transmission distance is very short (40-50 km). In summary, this work provides theoretical foundations for designing and optimizing quantum entanglement distribution strategies in satellite networks, with applications to global-scale quantum communications.