Estimating Tea Plant Physiological Parameters Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Imagery and Machine Learning Algorithms

Tea (<i>Camellia sinensis</i> L.) holds agricultural economic value and forestry carbon sequestration potential, with Taiwan’s annual tea production exceeding TWD 7 billion. However, climate change-induced stressors threaten tea plant growth, photosynthesis, yield, and quality, necessitating an accurate real-time monitoring system to enhance plantation management and production stability. This study surveys tea plantations at low, mid-, and high elevations in Nantou County, central Taiwan, collecting data from 21 fields using conventional farming methods (CFMs), which emphasize intensive management, and agroecological farming methods (AFMs), which prioritize environmental sustainability. This study integrates leaf area index (LAI), photochemical reflectance index (PRI), and quantum yield of photosystem II (ΦPSII) data with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV)-derived visible-light and multispectral imagery to compute color indices (CIs) and multispectral indices (MIs). Using feature ranking methods, an optimized dataset was developed, and the predictive performance of eight regression algorithms was assessed for estimating tea plant physiological parameters. The results indicate that LAI was generally lower in AFMs, suggesting reduced leaf growth density and potential yield differences. However, PRI and ΦPSII values revealed greater environmental adaptability and potential long-term ecological benefits in AFMs compared to CFMs. Among regression models, MIs provided greater stability for tea plant physiological parameters, whereas feature ranking methods had minimal impact on accuracy. XGBoost outperformed all models in predicting parameters, achieving optimal results for (1) LAI: R² = 0.716, RMSE = 1.01, MAE = 0.683, (2) PRI: R² = 0.643, RMSE = 0.013, MAE = 0.009, and (3) ΦPSII: R² = 0.920, RMSE = 0.048, MAE = 0.013. Overall, we highlight the effectiveness of integrating gradient boosting models with multispectral data to capture tea plant physiological characteristics. This study develops generalizable predictive models for tea plant physiological parameter estimation and advances non-contact crop physiological monitoring for tea plantation management, providing a scientific foundation for precision agriculture applications.